In recent years, it has become increasingly common to hear people remark that we are living through unusually turbulent times. From the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change, political polarization, technological disruption, and geopolitical tensions, it can feel as though we are facing an unprecedented convergence of crises and rapid changes. But how unusual is our current moment, really, when viewed through a broader historical lens?
To answer this question, we must compare our present circumstances to the sweeping transformations of the 19th and 20th centuries. Those eras saw their own share of upheavals and paradigm shifts, from the Industrial Revolution to two world wars, the rise and fall of empires, and dramatic social movements. Yet there are compelling arguments that today’s confluence of challenges is indeed exceptional in important ways.
The 19th Century: A World in Flux
The 19th century was undoubtedly a time of profound change. The Industrial Revolution radically reshaped economies, urbanized populations, and transformed daily life. New technologies like the steam engine, telegraph, and railroad collapsed distances and accelerated the pace of commerce and communication. Meanwhile, political revolutions swept across Europe and the Americas, toppling old regimes and ushering in new forms of government.
These changes did not occur in isolation, but often fed into and amplified one another. For instance, industrialization fueled urbanization, which in turn created conditions ripe for political upheaval. The spread of literacy and printing presses enabled new ideas to circulate rapidly, fomenting further change.
Yet for all this tumult, the pace of change in the 19th century was still relatively gradual by today’s standards. Most people still lived and worked much as their parents and grandparents had. While elites might have felt the ground shifting beneath their feet, the average person’s day-to-day life remained fairly stable over the course of decades.
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The 20th Century: An Age of Extremes
If the 19th century set change in motion, the 20th century saw it accelerate to a dizzying velocity. Two world wars reshaped the global order. The rise of mass production, consumerism, and advertising transformed economies and cultures. Breakthroughs in medicine dramatically extended lifespans. The advent of radio, television, and eventually the internet revolutionized how information spread.
The century also witnessed extreme ideological struggles, from the clash between democracy, fascism, and communism to the Cold War and decolonization. Social movements for civil rights, women’s liberation, and other causes upended long-standing hierarchies and norms.
By the latter half of the 20th century, the rate of technological and social change had reached a point where generational divides became stark. Someone born in 1900 would have seen a world utterly transformed by the time they reached old age.
Today’s Convergence of Crises
So how does our current moment compare to these earlier eras of upheaval? While the absolute pace of change may have been faster in the 20th century, today we face a uniquely complex convergence of intersecting crises and transformations.
The climate crisis alone represents an existential threat on a scale humanity has never faced before. Its effects are already being felt in extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and biodiversity loss. Addressing it will require unprecedented global cooperation and economic restructuring.
Simultaneously, we are grappling with a pandemic that has killed millions and disrupted economies worldwide. The rise of artificial intelligence and automation threatens to upend labor markets. Political polarization and the erosion of democratic norms are straining governance systems. Wealth inequality has reached staggering levels.
What makes our present moment unique is not just the number of crises, but how deeply interconnected they are. Climate change exacerbates inequality and migration pressures. Social media amplifies political divisions. Automation compounds economic insecurity. Each challenge feeds into and complicates the others.
The Communications Revolution and the Decline of Deference
Underlying many of these shifts is a profound change in how we communicate and form communities. The internet and social media have enabled people to connect based on shared interests and identities rather than geographic proximity. This has eroded the power of traditional, place-based institutions and authorities.
In earlier eras, most people’s social circles were largely determined by where they lived. Local governments, religious institutions, and community organizations held significant sway. Today, someone in rural Iowa might feel more connected to an online community of fellow hobbyists scattered across the globe than to their next-door neighbors.
This shift has contributed to a broader decline in deference to traditional sources of authority. Whether it’s politicians, religious leaders, or scientific experts, established institutions find their credibility increasingly questioned. People can now easily find alternative viewpoints and form their own information bubbles.
The result is a fragmentation of shared reality. Different groups operate with entirely different sets of assumed facts and values. This makes building consensus around complex issues like climate change or pandemic response extraordinarily difficult.
A Complex Environment for Decision-Makers
For business leaders and policymakers, this convergence of crises and erosion of shared narratives creates an exceptionally challenging decision-making environment. Traditional models of risk assessment and strategic planning struggle to account for the level of uncertainty and interconnectedness we now face.
In the past, a company might have been able to focus primarily on economic indicators and industry-specific trends when making long-term plans. Today, they must also factor in the potential impacts of climate change, geopolitical instability, technological disruption, and rapidly shifting social norms.
Moreover, the decline of deference means that businesses can no longer count on the stability of regulatory environments or consumer behaviors. Public opinion can shift rapidly, amplified by social media. A company’s reputation can be made or broken by a viral post.
Adapting Decision-Making for a Complex World
To navigate this new landscape, decision-makers must fundamentally change their thought processes. Here are some key shifts required:
- Embrace uncertainty: Rather than trying to predict specific outcomes, focus on building resilience and adaptability. Scenario planning should consider a wide range of possible futures.
- Systems thinking: Recognize the interconnectedness of different trends and risks. A decision in one area may have unforeseen consequences in another.
- Stakeholder engagement: With trust in institutions low, actively engaging with diverse stakeholders becomes crucial. This helps anticipate potential backlash and builds legitimacy.
- Ethical considerations: As consumers and employees increasingly expect businesses to take stands on social issues, leaders must weigh ethical implications alongside financial ones.
- Agility and experimentation: In a fast-changing environment, the ability to quickly test and iterate becomes more valuable than perfect planning.
- Long-term perspective: While short-term pressures are intense, leaders must balance these with consideration of long-term risks and opportunities, particularly around issues like climate change.
- Diverse inputs: To avoid blind spots, actively seek out diverse perspectives and alternative viewpoints when making decisions.
Conclusion: Navigating the New Normal
While every era faces its own challenges, the convergence of crises we face today is indeed historically unusual in its complexity and interconnectedness. The communications revolution has fundamentally altered how societies function, eroding traditional sources of authority and complicating efforts to build consensus.
For decision-makers in business and policy, this new landscape demands a radical rethinking of how we approach planning and risk management. The old playbooks are no longer sufficient. Success will require embracing uncertainty, thinking systemically, and remaining ethically grounded and adaptable in the face of rapid change.
Yet for all the challenges, this moment also offers unprecedented opportunities. The same forces driving instability—technological advancement, global interconnectedness, and shifting social norms—also create possibilities for innovation and positive transformation on a scale never before possible.
Those who can successfully navigate this complex environment, balancing short-term pressures with long-term vision, may well shape the course of the coming decades. The task is daunting, but the potential rewards—for businesses, societies, and the planet as a whole—are immense.
Peter is chairman of Flexiion and has a number of other business interests. (c) 2024, Peter Osborn
