The Global Picture
Daily fatalities have been on a rising trajectory, more than doubling since mid-October. The dip around the turn of the year was almost certainly only a lull in reporting. There has been a retreat over the last two weeks, but this has reversed in recent days. Time will tell whether this is a bump or a change of trend.
The total number of countries reporting Covid fatalities remains close to its all time high.
The UK
Reported cases continue to decline steeply. Fatalities have been in sharp decline for two weeks but have been somewhat uncertain over the last few days. This needs watching in the days ahead to see whether the instability continues or a trend emerges.
Regions and Hemispheres
The instability in UK fatalities is mirrored in the Northern Hemisphere and Equatorial countries. This is both puzzling and concerning. It could be evidence of the grip of recent mutations, particularly E484K. As with the UK, this needs watching carefully in the week or so ahead.
The instability is visible in Europe and the Americas, with the latter showing what looks like the beginning of a strong up-trend,
Reported fatalities per capita across Asia and Africa are at a much lower level, but this is highly likely to be a reflection of lower reporting rather than fewer fatalities. The trends seem to be continuing down.
Peter is chairman of Flexiion and has a number of other business interests. (c) 2021, Peter Osborn
